Process-based models for climate impact attribution across sectors (CA19139)

Many complex process-based models are available in Europe to project future climate impacts. Yet, the current climate impact research community is fragmented, modeling mostly individual systems. The integration of climate impacts across different natural and societal sectors is only slowly emerging. Likewise, attribution of impacts to climate and other factors is still a strongly under-researched field given that climate change is already strongly manifesting itself, an increasing number of court cases dealing with climate impacts is being negotiated and policy debates on loss and damage are intensifying. This lack of coordination amongst impact modelers and insufficient awareness about impact attribution methods hampers important scientific and political progress and more coordination and networking is urgently needed.

Therefore, PROCLIAS aims to develop common protocols, harmonized datasets and a joint understanding of how to conduct cross-sectoral, multi-model climate impact studies at regional and global scales allowing for attribution of impacts of recent climatic changes and robust projections of future climate impacts. The Action will do so by focusing on key interactions of climate impacts across sectors, their accumulated effect, especially of extreme events, the attribution of impacts to climate change and the quantification of uncertainties.

PROCLIAS will make use of all COST networking tools to train young researchers to conduct and analyse multi-model simulations in a cross-sectoral way, to support a common platform for collecting impact model simulations and methods for analyzing them and to disseminate the data, code and results to scientists as well as, in a more synthesized form, to stakeholders.